Defiance Ratings and Predictions Thread (Awards Given)

[Overmind One]

I don't see how the ratings have been bad enough to cancel.

You have a point. The ratings are not bad enough YET to cancel it. But they are still not necessarily at the level where renewal is certain. We know that they got a two year deal and this is the end of that deal. The game is not picking up from what I can see. It isnt selling all that great. The series...meh. But perhaps it is just cause I hate the thing?

 

[Overmind One]

I don't see how the ratings have been bad enough to cancel.

Dude, all those balls are scaring me.....you are some kinda psychic! 7 more numbers please???

Predictions for Defiance Season 2 Episode 11

Jim of WVa - 1.5 million (Still better than SGU at this point )
Tripler - 1.46 million
Overmind One 1.30 million

 

[Gatefan1976]

Defiance has been getting some good raps from critics lately, so I think you will find it floating for a bit. IF, IF the game flops in it's now Free to play structure however, it is gonna die off.

It's an interesting world, which keeps gamers, it is a pretty ordinary show however.

 

[Joelist]

The funny thing is TPTB are angling for a renewal. For example they committed to use part of a season 3 to FINALLY explain the backstory. I think it was revealed on tweets that their plan is to explore the Pale Wars (like they should have done in the series premiere).

 

[shavedape]

Guys, I just don't see how an average of 1.5 can be enough to compensate for the $100 million-plus budget. Numbers do not lie.

 

[Backstep]

Guys, I just don't see how an average of 1.5 can be enough to compensate for the $100 million-plus budget. Numbers do not lie.

They now rely on twitter numbers, so the 10 (SGU) basement dwellers twit a million times on their hundred twit accounts.

 

[Overmind One]

Guys, I just don't see how an average of 1.5 can be enough to compensate for the $100 million-plus budget. Numbers do not lie.

I agree. But Syfy has lowered expectations now. They have not been able to hit numbers like they did with Stargate SG-1/SGA in years. By the paltry SGU and NuBSG numbers, Defiance is doing ok.

 

[Overmind One]

The funny thing is TPTB are angling for a renewal. For example they committed to use part of a season 3 to FINALLY explain the backstory. I think it was revealed on tweets that their plan is to explore the Pale Wars (like they should have done in the series premiere).

I dont even know where the story is by now. Last I remember, Irisa was falling into a volcano. I like to remember her that way, and imagine the others jumping in after her. The end.

 

[Jim of WVa]

Guys, I just don't see how an average of 1.5 can be enough to compensate for the $100 million-plus budget. Numbers do not lie.

The marginal cost for new episodes will still be less than for new SGU episodes.

 

[Jim of WVa]

Dude, all those balls are scaring me.....you are some kinda psychic! 7 more numbers please???

Predictions for Defiance Season 2 Episode 11

Jim of WVa - 1.5 million (Still better than SGU at this point )
Tripler - 1.46 million
Overmind One 1.30 million

Did you know that there will be two episodes shown this Thursday, 08/21/2014? Please make a prediction for both episodes.

 

[Overmind One]

Did you know that there will be two episodes shown this Thursday, 08/21/2014? Please make a prediction for both episodes.

I didnt know! Please repost your predictions as needed. I dropped the ball here.

 

[Jim of WVa]

Predictions for Defiance Season 2 Episode 10
Jim of WVa - 1.5 million (Still better than SGU at this point.)
Tripler - 1.43 million

Predictions for Defiance Season 2 Episode 11
Jim of WVa - 1.5 million (Still better than SGU at this point )
Tripler - 1.46 million

 

[Overmind One]

Thanks Jim!

Predictions for Defiance Season 2 Episode 10
Jim of WVa - 1.5 million (Still better than SGU at this point.)
Tripler - 1.43 million
Overmind One - 1.35 million

Predictions for Defiance Season 2 Episode 11
Jim of WVa - 1.5 million (Still better than SGU at this point )
Tripler - 1.46 million
Overmind One - 1.33 million

 

[heisenberg]

Guys, I just don't see how an average of 1.5 can be enough to compensate for the $100 million-plus budget. Numbers do not lie.

They now rely on twitter numbers, so the 10 (SGU) basement dwellers twit a million times on their hundred twit accounts.

I agree. But Syfy has lowered expectations now. They have not been able to hit numbers like they did with Stargate SG-1/SGA in years. By the paltry SGU and NuBSG numbers, Defiance is doing ok.

A: No news yet on #Defiance, but keep watching and tweeting, we have 2 new episodes of #Defiance next Thursday at 8/7c!

https://twitter.com/Syfy/statuses/500375087284240384

I am guessing that them waiting means they aren't too sure to keep it on air. Otherwise, they would have. They'll probably wait a while. It beggars belief how people can still support a channel that has killed off so many great shows and kept this crap on instead.

The marginal cost for new episodes will still be less than for new SGU episodes.

I remember seeing SG-1 at season 9 costs getting up to 1.7 million per episode and they ordered 20 episodes.
http://www.gateworld.net/news/2004/05/sci-fiopentoisg-1iseasonni.shtml

 

[heisenberg]

Defiance has been getting some good raps from critics lately, so I think you will find it floating for a bit. IF, IF the game flops in it's now Free to play structure however, it is gonna die off.

It's an interesting world, which keeps gamers, it is a pretty ordinary show however.

Those critics are people who have been paid to write good reviews for the show. It's a known practice. It happens in video games too, which is why I like to view independent reviews for games/tv shows movies these days, rather than looking at metacritic score or what it is rated on imdb. You also need to take into consideration that people will like something because there is nothing else to watch and will be okay for it. Hell SGU is rated the same as ST voyager for pete's sake and you know I consider voyager to be the best star trek show despite having a heavy flawed plot(nothing is perfect). I can forgive a show if it has a flawed story, but when this show has a broken back story and it's not fun to watch either, it's no longer a great show for me and I lose all interest. I am sure others do too. This is what made star trek/stargate great to watch. It was because it was FUN to watch.

The game and the tv don't cross over very much at all from what I have read/heard. They are set in two different places also and there is only a brief mention of them. Not exactly how they envisioned it. Actually, I feel that was a lie from the start. I think it was get people to buy the game and watch the tv show and hoping that get people to buy the game and watch the tv show.

Not to mention, the game has been in development since 2008 and costs like 70 million to make, but the game looks and plays pretty "meh/mediocre" in all aspects. I have played games with a smaller development team and smaller budget that have been far more satisfying than this.

 

[Gatefan1976]

Those critics are people who have been paid to write good reviews for the show. It's a known practice. It happens in video games too, which is why I like to view independent reviews for games/tv shows movies these days, rather than looking at metacritic score or what it is rated on imdb.

I was not talking about Metacritic, IMDB or rotten tomato's aggregate scores. I was talking of at least semi-independent reviews dude.

You also need to take into consideration that people will like something because there is nothing else to watch and will be okay for it. Hell SGU is rated the same as ST voyager for pete's sake and you know I consider voyager to be the best star trek show despite having a heavy flawed plot(nothing is perfect). I can forgive a show if it has a flawed story, but when this show has a broken back story and it's not fun to watch either, it's no longer a great show for me and I lose all interest. I am sure others do too. This is what made star trek/stargate great to watch. It was because it was FUN to watch.

I never said Defiance was -good-, I was only commenting on the fact that it has started to get -some- good press.

The game and the tv don't cross over very much at all from what I have read/heard. They are set in two different places also and there is only a brief mention of them. Not exactly how the envisioned it. Not to mention, the game has been in development since 2008 and costs like 70 million to make. As a veteran gamer myself, I think the game isnt that good considering how much money has been poured into this.

There is a chance that the show will die but the game will continue. the world of Defiance -is- interesting if you are interacting with it a la WOW or SW:TOR, but not so interesting for a show.

 

[heisenberg]

I never said Defiance was -good-, I was only commenting on the fact that it has started to get -some- good press.

The good press is down to PR and all that other nonsense. It's easy to brainwash people. All it takes is number of attempts until you have them.

There is a chance that the show will die but the game will continue. the world of Defiance -is- interesting if you are interacting with it a la WOW or SW:TOR, but not so interesting for a show.

The game will continue at best for another year until it's cancelled.

 

[Gatefan1976]

Guys, I just don't see how an average of 1.5 can be enough to compensate for the $100 million-plus budget. Numbers do not lie.

The budget for the show is not that high.
Numbers may not lie, but the people using them do.

 

[shavedape]

The marginal cost for new episodes will still be less than for new SGU episodes.

How do you figure that? Why would new episodes be "marginal" in terms of cost? It's a live action show with a large cast, numerous sets and large production staff. I don't see how the cost diminishes over time.

And keep in mind they have to recoup the $100 million-plus that has been spent to produce this turd originally. They don't start making a profit until they've crossed that threshold, and even then it won't be worth it if they only make a few million in the end.

Now, granted, I don't know what kind of numbers this show is getting in foreign countries. Maybe in the long run the collective ratings and DVD sales of this show will put them over the top, but that is a hard mountain to tackle.

And regarding your SGU reference, keep in mind that the show came with a built-in audience. DEFECATION did not. If they're starting to spend less on filming episodes of DEFECATION that's only because the investors are getting wary and don't want to risk more money on something that is clearly not succeeding as well as hoped for.

 

[shavedape]

The budget for the show is not that high.
Numbers may not lie, but the people using them do.

You're right in that TPTB lie about the numbers as best they can. That's a given. As for the budget not being that high for the show that all depends on the return on investment. Does a 1.5 share generate enough revenue to be considered a budgetary success? Or is it just pissing against a mountain of debt? Personally I just don't see it working at that low of a number. That's just my perspective but it's based on what I've seen happen to other shows.