Netflix is getting hammered with high contract costs to air the shows they want to air. First by Sony, now soon by Disney.
Yes they are, because the netflix system from what I understand is a very poor business model. I seem to recall saying as much on a thread some months ago, even before the sony pullout happened. Actually, "realisticly" it's not such a bad model, the owners just picked a niche market where the "big boys" can just pwn them at will. I predict that within a few years tops the studio's will have thier own "netflix" style net services for thier own material only. After that, EVERYTHING will come down to who really owns the internet infastructure across the world.
The problem is that the studios do not want to lost all that money they currently get by having people subscribe to cable channels they own, and it also cuts out the interstitial ads they sell which go BETWEEN the scheduled shows on TV programming (and it IS programming, just like a computer program). If they cannot control when things will be aired, they cannot create their neat sliding scales and pitch advertising slots based on audience participation in certain time slots, etc.
Huh??
Can you clarify here please dude??
Like you said, basically everyone here and elsewhere in the scifi world is abandoning TV altogether in favor of watching things in their own collections or selecting their viewing from choices on Netflix or other on-demand internet based entities. Right now, there is no distribution model that would be acceptable to studios who are doing business the 20th century way. Its because they cant see how to MAKE MONEY doing it the 21st century way.
No one can nail that one down Bro, and the people who do are gonna be stinking rich. Netflix as an entity right now i justs not viable, it is subject to the whims of studios as you noted and with no product to sell, they go "tits up" I see netflix as an "experiment" by the studio's to see if what amounts to "direct marketing" via the internet will work, with all the benifits of being able to kill the experiment at any time and without having to front the costs or the consumer.
Advertising is not going to cut it anymore. The new model will need to rely on subscription fees and/or pay-per-view models with NO advertising.
Not gonna work bro. You are making the classic mistake of assuming that Television and television shows are part of the "entertainment industry" where in reality they are not. Television exists to provide advertisers a way to easily mass market to people, the shows are just a means to and end, no more. Thats not to say that the people MAKING the shows think that way (at least initially), but that is the hard truth.
The internet-based entertainment model will not be under their control, it will be the choice of the audience which will make or break shows.
Not under who's control??
As to the choice by the audience, they already DO make or break shows. Sure it may not be a straight line under the Neilson system, but the audience do very much make or break shows.
Social networking will spread the word on good shows as well as stinkers. The mainstream critics will have even less relevance than they do now. Even awards shows will change. How will the Academy awards include a CGI actor? What will become of the Screen Actor's Guild?
Yes, social networking will become the new focus of marketing, I would have thought the whole "experiment" of SGUS would have made that entirely clear to people, especially us "old timers". the problem is that it has not been embraced directly in alot of shows. Tell ya what OM, one night, DVR Monday night RAW, don't watch the wresting stuff (just FF that stuff), but look at the the way it is sold to the consumer in "talk spots", post ad return messages and icons on screen. The WWE flogs the living crap out of itself in social media by having an "annonoymos GM" who communicates via E-mail, banging on about what the wrestlers twitter or FB, having a PPV dedicated to what the fans want who vote via FB/twitter/email. For a bunch of "low rent hick's" thier marketing dept kicks nine shades of crap out of most programming
Its a paradigm shift. Its all good from where I sit...
Indeed it is a paradigm shift, but I don't think it will turn out the way scifi fans like us may like.